宝水的72松博客

作者:LOJA 日期:2007-12-01

The world does not shake China

Nov 29th 2007 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
On trade or the exchange rate

“LET China sleep, for when she wakes the world will shake.” So, purportedly, said Napoleon some 200 years ago. In Beijing this week European leaders have been telling their Chinese counterparts that such unease is at risk of spreading. Once content to let the Americans do the worrying, the EU is joining in.
In the build-up to an annual China-EU summit in Beijing on November 28th, European officials raised hackles by complaining about Chinese trade practices and exchange-rate policy in the kind of direct language that China had thought an annoying American trait. The European Commission’s president, José Manuel Barroso, told Communist Party officials that the emergence of China risked being seen by Europeans “as a threat”. Mr Barroso gave warning of “protectionist pressures which would be very difficult to contain” if nothing were done to curb the EU’s huge trade deficit with China.
Peter Mandelson, the EU’s trade commissioner, was similarly blunt on China’s rampant abuse of intellectual-property rights. “The problems continue to get worse, and the world—particularly China—is changing too fast to wait longer,” he said in Beijing. It was hard, he said, to see how much longer Europe’s patience would last. He also took a swipe at China for suggesting that European concerns about the safety of Chinese products were being used to excuse protectionism. Wu Yi, a deputy prime minister, said she was “extremely dissatisfied” with his remarks.
Europe’s disquiet is likely to grow. Last year its trade deficit with China reached €131 billion ($164 billion), say EU figures. This year it is expected to grow to €150billion-160 billion, on a par with America’s record deficit with China in 2006 (see chart). That is the more disturbing for Europeans because they are not used to it: for years, their trade deficit was China was modest. The yuan has been appreciating slowly against the dollar in the past couple of years. But it has been declining against the euro. This is making Chinese imports even cheaper for Europeans—good news for consumers and companies making products in China for export to Europe, but bad news for exporters and uncompetitive industries in Europe itself.
China is showing little sign of yielding to European and American complaints about what those countries see as a grossly undervalued yuan. The official line remains that any change should be gradual. Nor is it anxious to take up the grouses of European and American companies about the difficulties of doing business in China. A survey released last week by the European Chamber of Commerce in China showed that many responding companies felt that China was trying to circumvent the market-opening commitments it made to the World Trade organisation.
Once hopeful that the EU might act as a counterbalance to American power, China’s expectations have receded as more pro-American leaders have taken over in Germany and France. The EU may be China’s biggest trading partner, but it ranks far lower in China’s political calculations. A report from Chatham House, a British think-tank, says China believes Europe lacks strategic vision and suffers from internal discord, impeding its credibility.
It also argues that China has a clear understanding of EU institutions. It is certainly true that China has been exploiting EU divisions to the full. Following an unprecedented meeting in September between Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, and Tibet’s exiled leader, the Dalai Lama (see article), China has vented its rage by cancelling a number of engagements with Germany, its largest export market in the EU.
By contrast it gave a warm welcome to France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who visited China just before the EU summit, conspicuously neglecting to bring his human-rights minister along. Mr Sarkozy oversaw the signing of a deal worth $11.9 billion for the sale of two French nuclear reactors to China and another for the sale of $17 billion-worth of Airbus aircraft.
China takes America more seriously. Its punishment of Germany has been tougher than its response to the first public appearance by an American president with the Dalai Lama in October. But even with the Americans, China let its pique be known. Last month it abruptly blocked a Thanksgiving visit to Hong Kong by the American aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and her escorting ships, until it was too late for them to change course before the holiday. At least America’s Treasury secretary, Hank Paulson, is still due to visit Beijing this month. But like those of Europeans, his concerns about the yuan and trade imbalances will receive a polite brush-off.
译文：

世界动摇不了中国

　　“让中国睡吧，因为她一旦醒来，世界就会为之动摇。”据说，这是拿破仑在大约200年前说的。本周在北京，欧洲领导人一直告诉他们的中国对手，这样的不安可能扩散。欧盟一度满足于看着美国着急，如今它也急了。
　　在28日的中欧年度峰会上，欧洲官员抱怨中国贸易做法和汇率政策，其方式之直接让人想起美国的风格。欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐表示，中国的崛起可能被欧洲人视为“威胁”。巴罗佐警告如果没有措施抑制欧盟庞大的对华赤字，保护主义压力将难以遏制。
　　欧盟贸易专员曼德尔森对中国猖獗的盗版也同样不客气。他还强烈地暗示欧洲对中国产品安全的忧虑会被用作保护主义的借口。中国副总理吴仪表示她对他的发言“非常不满意”。
　　欧洲的不安可能渐长。去年它的对华贸易赤字达1310亿欧元，预计今年会增长到1500到1600亿欧元，与美国2006年对华贸易赤字处于同样水平。对欧洲人来说，这更加令人不安，因为他们还没习惯：多年来，他们的对华贸易赤字不大。在过去两年，人民币对美元缓慢升值，但对欧元贬值。这让中国进口品对欧洲人来说更加便宜——对消费者和在中国生产面向欧洲的出口品的公司来说是好消息，但对出口商和欧洲缺乏竞争力的产业来说是坏消息。
　　欧美抱怨人民币严重低估，但中国没有显示出多少屈服的迹象。官方的态度仍然是任何转变都应该是渐进的。它也不急于处理欧美公司对在中国做生意的困难的抱怨。上周公布的欧洲商会调查显示，许多受访公司认为中国试图规避它向世贸组织作出的开放市场承诺。
　　中国曾经希望欧盟可以作为制衡美国的力量，但随着越来越多亲美领袖接管德国和法国，中国的期望消退了。欧盟可能是中国最大的贸易伙伴，但它在中国政治考量的排名中名次要靠后得多。英国智库皇家国际事务研究所（Chatham House）表示，中国认为欧洲缺乏战略眼光，而且内部不和，妨碍了它的可信度。
　　它还表示中国清楚了解欧洲制度。中国当然充分利用欧盟的分裂。9月，德国总理默克尔与达赖喇嘛会晤，中国取消与德国的一些接触来宣泄它的不满。相反，它热烈欢迎法国总统萨尔科奇。萨尔科奇在欧中峰会之前出访中国，而且没有带上他的人权部长。萨尔科奇主持一项价值119亿美元的法国核反应堆销售协议的签订，还拿下了价值170亿美元的空中客车飞机销售协议。
　　中国对美国的态度要更认真些。美国总统10月首次与达赖喇嘛公开露面，但中国对此的回应不像对德国的惩罚那么严厉。但即使是对美国人，中国也表现了自己的不满。上月，它突然堵住美国小鹰号航母及其战斗群的感恩节香港之行。至少美国的财政部长鲍尔森仍然会在本月访问北京。但和那些欧洲人一样，他对人民币和贸易失衡的忧虑将得到礼貌的拒绝。